IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections

Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie

IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections

doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr

Garner, Gregory et al.

ExperimentDOI

climate change future projection IPCC IPCC-AR6 IPCC-DDC sea level WGI

Summary: These data sets contain the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. The dataset groups contain the full set of samples for the global projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections global) as well as summary relative sea level projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional and, without the AR6 estimate of background sea level process rates, see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional novlm). The confidence output files correspond most directly to the figures and tables in the report.
The IPCC AR6 sea level change projection files are provided in a simplified format but represent a more complicated workflow involving combinations of multiple lines of evidence for the various individual contributors to sea level change. It's highly recommended using the data as provided in the confidence output files to remain consistent with the assessment in IPCC AR6 Chapter 9 (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections HowTos for details).

Required Acknowledgements and Citation: In order to document the impact of these sea level rise projections, users of the data are obligated to cite chapter 9 of WGI contribution to the IPCC AR6, the FACTS model description paper, and the version of the data set used. When using these data in a publication, please include the information provided in IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections Acknowledgments.

Disclaimer: The data producers and data providers make no warranty, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. All liabilities arising from the supply of the information (including any liability arising in negligence) are excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.
Project: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements (IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report)
Contact: Robert Kopp (
robert.kopp@nullrutgers.edu
0000-0003-4016-9428)
Aimée Slangen (
aimee.slangen@nullnioz.nl
0000-0001-6268-6683)
Spatial Coverage: Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage: 2020-01-01 to 2300-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog: World Data Center for Climate
Size: 10.90 GiB (11701334484 Byte)
Format: NetCDF, netCDF.zip
Status: completely archived
Creation Date: 2022-05-12
Future Review Date: 2032-05-14

Find data Export dataset acronyms

Cite as: Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr

BibTeX RIS

Funding: National Science Foundation
Natural Environment Research Council
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
European Union

Scientific Quality Assurance (SQA)

Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the perio...

Description: Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and five different future Global Mean Surface Temperatures (from 2080-2100). The SSP scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.
In the sea level projections, likely ranges are assessed based upon the combination of uncertainty in the temperature change associated with an emissions scenarios and uncertainty in the relationships between temperature and drivers of projected sea level change, such as thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. In general, 17th-83rd percentile results are interpreted as likely ranges, reflecting the use of the term likely to refer to a probability of at least 66%. Note, Fewer global climate model simulations are available after 2100, which can lead to discontinuity in projections between 2100 and immediately following decades, particularly in regions where dynamic sea level effects are an important contributor.
To indicate the potential impact of deeply uncertain ice sheet processes, about which there is currently a low level of agreement and limited evidence, low confidence projections are also provided for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the low confidence projections integrate information from the Structured Expert Judgement study of Bamber et al. (2019). For the Antarctic ice sheet, the low confidence projections> projections also incorporate results from a simulation study that incorporates Marine Ice Cliff Instability (DeConto et al., 2021). The results shown are 17th-83rd percentile projections, but are not assessed as likely ranges because of the low agreement and limited evidence. See section 9.6 and Box 9.4 for more details. For more information on the use of likelihood and confidence language by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Box 1.1.
(in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/)
Method: TQA checklist
Method Description: Quality checks performed by DDC and applied for IPCC intermediate data sets: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements
Method Url: https://redmine.dkrz.de/projects/cmip6-lta-and-data-citation/wiki/Intermediate_datasets

Technical Quality Assurance (TQA)

TQA - Technical Quality Assurance 'approved by DDC'

Description: Technical Quality results

1. General Checks
a. number of datasets > 0 -> passed
b. dataset size > 0 -> passed
c. all datasets and the experiment/dsgroup are completely archived -> passed
d. datasets are accessible -> spot-checked -> passed

2. Completeness Checks
a. number of datasets consistent with provided datasets -> passed
b. experiments/dsgroup is assigned a data citation -> passed
c. all datasets are assigned data licenses -> passed
d. agreed references are complete -> passed
e. agreed keywords are assigned to experiment/dsgroup and datasets -> passed
f. experiment/dsgroup has contacts -> passed
g. experiment/dsgroup and all datasets have a coverage information -> passed
h. experiment/dsgroup has a summary/abstract -> passed
i. experiment/dsgroup has documented scientific and technical quality information -> passed
j. datasets are assigned variables and if applicable CF Standard Names -> passed

3. Consistency Checks
a. correctness of licenses -> passed
b. correctness of data citation -> passed
c. correctness of contacts -> passed
d. author contact and citation information is consistent -> passed
e. coverages of experiment/dsgroup and datasets are consistent -> passed
f. summary/abstract content contains agreed DDC information -> passed
g. CF Standard Names and variable names are consistent to dataset content -> passed
Method: TQA checklist
Method Description: Quality checks performed by DDC and applied for IPCC intermediate data sets: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements
Method Url: https://redmine.dkrz.de/projects/cmip6-lta-and-data-citation/wiki/Intermediate_datasets
Result Date: 2023-04-17

Contact type	Person	ORCID	Organization
Contact	Robert Kopp	0000-0003-4016-9428	Rutgers University
Contact	Aimée Slangen	0000-0001-6268-6683	Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author	Dr. Gregory Garner	0000-0001-7864-1535	Gro Intelligence
Author	Tim H.J. Hermans	0000-0002-0253-9291	Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author	Robert Kopp	0000-0003-4016-9428	Rutgers University
Author	Aimée Slangen	0000-0001-6268-6683	Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author	Tasmin Edwards	-	-
Author	Anders Levermann	0000-0003-4432-4704	Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Author	Sophie Nowicki	0000-0001-6328-5590	University of Buffalo
Author	Matthew D. Palmer	0000-0001-7422-198X	Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - UK Met Office
Author	Chris Smith	0000-0003-0599-4633	University of Leeds
Author	Baylor Fox-Kemper	0000-0002-2871-2048	Brown University
Author	Helene Hewitt	-	Met Office Hadley Centre
Author	Cunde Xiao	0000-0002-1706-4794	Beijing Normal University
Author	Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir	-	-
Author	Sybren Drijfhout	0000-0001-5325-7350	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Author	Nicholas Golledge	0000-0001-7676-8970	Victoria University of Wellington
Author	Marc Hemer	-	-
Author	Gerhard Krinner	0000-0002-2959-5920	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique en Alpes
Author	Alan Mix	-	-
Author	Dr. Dirk Notz	0000-0003-0365-5654	Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie
Author	Intan Nurhati	-	-
Author	Lucas Ruiz	0000-0002-8837-436X	Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias (IANIGLA)
Author	Jean-Baptiste Sallée	-	-
Author	Yongqiang Yu	-	-
Author	L. Hua	-	-
Author	Tamzin Palmer	-	-
Author	Brodie Pearson	0000-0002-0202-0481	Oregon State University
Investigator	Robert Kopp	0000-0003-4016-9428	Rutgers University
Funder	-	-	European Union
Funder	-	-	National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Funder	-	-	National Science Foundation
Funder	-	-	Natural Environment Research Council
Funder	-	-	Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Metadata	Lina Sitz	-	Université Paris-Saclay
Metadata	Beate Krüss	-	Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum

Cites

[1] DOI Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nowicki, S.; Nurhati, I.S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J.-B.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Yu, Y. (2023). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011

Is supplemented by

[1] DOI Smith, Chris. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections Chapter 7 Support. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr_Supp

Is documented by

[1] DOI Garner, G.G.; Kopp, R.E.; Hermans, T.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Koubbe, G.; Turilli, M.; Jha, S.; Edwards, T.L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M.D.; Smith, C. (2022). Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) modules, scripts, and data for the IPCC AR6 sea level projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6419954

[2] DOI Kopp, R.E. (2021). Location List for IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6382549

[3] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_Dist

[4] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions without Background Component. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_DistBC

[5] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection P-Boxes. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_PBox

data entry is identical to referenced publication

[1] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914710

[2] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914709

Attached Dataset Groups ( 3 )

Additional Info

Parent project(s)

IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report

[Entry acronym: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr] [Entry id: 3895460]